Welcome to the online version of From Politiken’s deskan evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill.

In today’s edition, our team breaks down a key Nebraska state senator standing in the way of a Trump-backed push to change how the state distributes its electoral votes. Plus, a deep dive into the latest NBC News poll.

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Key Nebraska Republican blocks Trump-backed push to change how state distributes electoral votes

Of Jonathan Allen, Bridget Bowman, Adam Edelman, Katherine Doyle, Allan Smith and Ben Kamisar

A Republican lawmaker in the state of Nebraska said Monday that he remains opposed to changing how the state distributes its electoral voteswhich effectively blocks a bid by President Donald Trump and his allies to change the system in an attempt to get a second electoral vote this fall.

Trump allies have pushed for a special legislative session intended for the Republican-controlled legislature to change Nebraska to a winner-take-all system instead of awarding electoral votes by congressional district.

“After deep consideration, it is clear to me that right now, 43 days from Election Day, is not the time to make this change,” state Sen. Mike McDonnell wrote in a letter obtained by NBC News.

The development appears to cap months of deliberations over whether Nebraska lawmakers could change how the state distributes its electoral votes in a way that would favor Trump.

Nebraska distributes its electoral votes by congressional district, and the swing district around Omaha has twice gone to Democrats in recent years, giving them an electoral vote from an otherwise ruby ​​state.

But if lawmakers changed it to a winner-take-all model, Trump would be almost certain to win all of Nebraska’s electoral votes.

And there is a likely scenario where it could decide who becomes the next president.

For example, if Vice President Kamala Harris would win Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin but lose every other swing stateshe and Trump would be tied at 269 electoral college votes in a winner-take-all showdown in Nebraska with Trump winning the state.

Read more →

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2020 vs. 2024: Why this could still be a close election

By Mark Murray

The latest national NBC News poll is good news for Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party — Harris leads Donald Trump by 5 points among registered voters, her popularity has soared since July, and Harris is leading Trump to better represent change.

But here’s a reminder of how close the November election can still be, despite these positive results for Democrats: Our poll mirrors in many ways what our late October 2020 poll showed — and remember how close and competitive that race was.

Biden’s favor in late October 2020: 45% positive, 42% negative (+3)

Harris now: 48% positive, 45% negative (+3)

Trump’s favor in late October 2020: Trump: 43% positive, 52% negative (-9)

Trump is now: 40% positive, 53% negative (-13)

The direction of the nation at the end of October 2020: 31% correct track, 60% wrong track

The direction of the nation now: 28% correct track, 65% wrong track

Congressional preferences at the end of October 2020: Democrats 48%, Republicans 43% (D+5)

Congress preference now: Democrats 48%, Republicans 46% (D+2)

“All this movement to Harris essentially returns the race to where it was in 2020 at the end of the campaign: a very close election,” said pollster Jeff Horwitt, the Democratic half of the bipartisan polling duo responsible for conducting the NBC News poll. .

And if we want another reminder of how close November can be, we’ve got new ones New York Times/Siena Battlefield Investigations in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina – all of which have Trump ahead in these critical states, but within the margin of error.

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Today’s best stories

• Debate preparations: Late. JD Vance, R-Ohio, is preparing for next week’s vice presidential debate with the help of his wife, advisers and a Minnesota congressman playing Gov. Tim Walz. Read more →

• Vance weighs in: Vance also responded to the controversy swirling around North Carolina GOP gubernatorial nominee Mark Robinson, telling NBC Philadelphia that allegations that Robinson posted lewd comments on a pro-life site “are not necessarily true.” Read more →

• Turn off hang talk: Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., defied Trump and struck a deal to fund the government for another three months, which the House is expected to vote on this week. Read more →

• Transition calls: Trump advisers and allies are already preparing for a possible transition to a Trump administration, preparing lists of possible candidates for various jobs. Read more →

• Pushing back: As Trump and Vance have targeted Haitian immigrants in their recent rhetoric, some Republicans in places with significant immigrant populations have felt compelled to push back, arguing that those immigrants have strengthened their communities. Read more →

• Heartburn of the house: As politicians look to tackle high housing costs, homebuilders say they face a myriad of problems, from high demand and costs to labor shortages and increased building restrictions. Read more →

• Bursting into a debate: The DNC is launching a new campaign calling Trump a “chicken” for not engaging in another debate against Harris, complete with signs showing Trump in a chicken suit. Read more →

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That’s all from the Politics Desk for now. If you have feedback – like or dislike – email us at [email protected]

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